Katie Stevens
Age: 17
Middlebury, CT
Katie Stevens’ American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: OK, so you know how the female lead on Glee is a precocious, highly annoying teenage girl who idolizes Barbra Streisand and practices her scales for hours on end and sings with a burning adult intensity totally inappropriate for a 17-year-old? That’s Katie Stevens! Will Stevens receive comparisons to Glee’s Rachel Berry (played by Lea Michele, who is in fact 23 years old)? You bet. Will voters be shocked at the awesome power of her voice? They will. Stevens will rack up votes from the following influential blocs: moms; grandmas; pervy guys; teenage boys (nominally distinct from pervy guys); vocal coaches; Glee freaks. That’s more than enough to win.
WHY SHE WON’T: Because Idol voters don’t tend to favor precocious and highly annoying teenage girls (Jordin Sparks aside). At least not once they get into the Top 10. That’s a little double-standard on the part of Idol voters—because they seem to love precocious and highly annoying teenage boys (cf. David Archuleta). Either way, Stevens’ future is on Broadway, not the Billboard charts.
Tim Urban
Age: 20
Duncanville, TX
Tim Urban’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Um, he got cut in Hollywood. So…he…can’t?
WHY HE WON’T: Oh yes, that’s right, this is the guy who replaced Chris Golightly—Chris Golightly being the guy who got kicked out of the Top 24 for already having a record deal or something. This places Tim Urban one notch below cannon fodder: a replacement. If he lasts two weeks, it will be a minor miracle. He won’t.
Haeley Vaughn
Age: 16
Fort Collins, CO
Haeley Vaughn’s American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: Nearly every female singer mentioned thus far has fallen into either the Glee camp or the “songbird” camp, but Haeley Vaughn manages to fall evenly and comfortably into both. A rudimentary guitarist, Vaughn has a beguiling voice with many lovely nuances, and a winning personality that belies her tender age.
WHY SHE WON’T: See Katie Stevens, but Vaughn doesn’t have anything approaching Stevens’ upside. She may have a career ahead of her, but she doesn’t have a coronation song in her immediate future.
Janell Wheeler
Age: 24
Tampa, FL
Janell Wheeler’s American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: Janell Wheeler’s folky, country-fied version of Estelle’s “American Boy” was arguably the highlight of Hollywood Week—a straight-up “made it your own” miracle that left Ellen’s jaw on the table, saying, “That was amazing.” Also, blond-bombshell country singers have a pretty good track record on Idol (cf. Carrie Underwood, Kelly Pickler). Wheeler’s not a true country singer, but in a season of songbirds, this cool alt-country chanteuse could go all the way.
WHY SHE WON’T: Well, she starts the season a little bit of an unknown and an afterthought—another blonde, alongside Didi Benami and Crystal Bowersox and Katelyn Epperly (and even Casey James) and at this point, for all her virtues, her upside is probably Brooke White, not Carrie Underwood. But who knows, right? After all, this…is American Idol.