John Park
Age: 21
Evanston, IL
John Park’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: John Park has a strong voice for R&B and a cool, contemporary look. Shania Twain fell into fits of giggles when attempting to critique him during auditions, suggesting perhaps a “Cougars for Park” faction. He’s already a favorite among some bloggers, and those voices tend to gain traction as the season progresses.
WHY HE WON’T: Historically, Asian singers have been marginalized on Idol. Outside of Jasmine Trias and Anoop Desai, it’s nothing but William Hung. For that matter, the American pop charts tend to be almost shockingly absent of Asian performers (Utada? BoA? Se7en?). If Park were a transcendent star, he might have a shot at beating the very long odds, but nothing we’ve seen of him so far suggests such talent.
Ashley Rodriguez
Age: 22
Chelsea, MA
Ashley Rodriguez’s American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: Again, there are a lot of songbirds and Glee girls in this year’s Top 12 girls, but there are not too many divas. Yet divas tend to do very well among Idol voters. That is, voters respond to big personalities and big voices, and Ashley Rodriguez has both. She’s also a knockout—she has Alicia Keys’ range and Alicia Keys’ looks. She has chart potential—a reasonable reference point is another Idol winner, Jordin Sparks, but A-Rod is more polished than Sparks was at this stage.
WHY SHE WON’T: Because divas are out of fashion on Idol; because while Didi Benami and Andrew Garcia and Crystal Bowersox and Casey James are “making the song [their] own,” Rodriguez will be getting pilloried by Simon for daring to sing Whitney or Celine and sounding “all a bit karaoke.”
Lilly Scott
Age: 20
Denver, CO
Lilly Scott’s American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: Because she’s this year’s Adam Lambert: an enormous, game-changing talent who has honed her abilities through years of work on non-pop stages. She has style to burn and cool hair and a dynamic, totally unique voice. Her version of Ella Fitzgerald’s “Lullaby of Birdland” during Hollywood Week was stunning—a Melinda Doolittle vocal coming out of a Karen O body. She’s the total package: a marketable performer and genuine artist with a long career ahead of her.
WHY SHE WON’T: Because Adam Lambert came in second, and because Melinda Doolittle came in third. Because sometimes voters don’t vote for the superstars or the super singers; they vote for Taylor Hicks.
Jermaine Sellers
Age: 27
Joliet, IL
Jermaine Sellers’ American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: He won’t.
WHY HE WON’T: Do you know what voters know about Jermaine Sellers going into the competition? That he threw the band under the bus during Hollywood Week. That Kara said to him, “Don’t throw the band under the bus.” That’s the impression with which voters have been left—that’s the only impression: that this is a petulant jerk with no humility or tact. Would Adam Lambert have thrown the band under the bus? No. Adam Lambert would have thanked the band for being awesome, as he did after every performance. Is Jermaine Sellers a petulant jerk? Who knows. But that’s what The Powers That Be want us to think. And that’s a tough impression to shake.
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