Michael Lynche
Age: 26
Astoria, NY
Michael Lynche’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: The closest thing Long Islanders have to a hometown Idol in this season’s Top 24, Astorian Michael Lynch is instantly recognizable—he’s a hulking beast with a baby face; in his mammoth paws, a guitar looks like a ukulele…or a toy…or a toothpick; his spin on the unforgiveable Mayer earworm “Waiting on the World to Change” brought a couple of interesting new hues to a tune that, through its sheer ubiquity, has become no more than a jingle.
WHY HE WON’T: Because big men never win Idol (except for Ruben Studdard); because black men never win Idol (except for Ruben Studdard); but mostly because he doesn’t have the skills. Like fellow gentle giant Michael Sarver (from Season 8), Lynche will stick around too long, but he won’t stick around that long.
Siobhan Magnus
Age: 20
Marstons Mills, MA
Siobhan Magnus’ American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: For the girls this year, the two words you’ll want to remember are “songbird”—which we’ve referenced at length above; meaning the hipster warblers cut from the Feist/Ingrid Michaelson/Corinne Bailey Rae mold—and Glee. Even if corporate synergy weren’t a priority at Fox—and, rest assured, it is—the hit musical TV show would still portend a tectonic shift in casting choices/voter preferences in Idol this year. Siobahn Magnus is one of several Glee-ful young ladies in this season’s Top 24: a “lame” “dork” who can belt like Celine Dion and is probably the child of pageant parents.
WHY SHE WON’T: Because, among the Glee candidates, she’s not The Chosen One (that would be Katie Stevens; see below), and if you’re not The Chosen One and you’re very strictly a demographic type, then you’re cannon fodder. So if you’re Siobahn Magnus, you’re cannon fodder.
Paige Miles
Age: 24
Houston, TX
Paige Miles’ American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: Who is this?
WHY SHE WON’T: So much cannon fodder on the distaff side of the ledger suggests that The Powers That Be want a woman to win Idol this year: It will take time for Paige Miles and Siobhan Magnus and Michelle Delamor and Katelyn Epperly and Haeley Vaughn to get pushed overboard, and during that time the likes of Crystal Bowersox and Katie Stevens will be building up voter bases the size of the national deficit. Will this strategy pay off? No—for the third year in a row, a man will win Idol, but it’s nice to be aware of the cynical machinations going on backstage when you’re wasting your texts on Lilly Scott.
Joe Muñoz
Age: 20
Huntington Park, CA
Joe Muñoz’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Come on, seriously—who is this?
WHY HE WON’T: Based on unscientific research (a quick YouTube search), Joe Muñoz was on screen for exactly 21 SECONDS during all of auditions and Hollywood Week combined. Do you remember his pedestrian version of “Man in the Mirror”? Not at all? Well, do a YouTube search—it’s there. Or, at least, one line of the chorus is there. Look, there’s nothing inherently wrong with the producers’ use of cannon fodder to create a recognizable rhythm to the show, but the fact that Idol Season 9’s one Mexican contestant has been handled and dismissed in such a manner suggests some ugly biases in the minds and hearts of The Powers That Be.