Todrick Hall
Age: 24
Arlington, TX
Todrick Hall’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Todrick Hall’s audition was one of the best in recent Idol history: he wrote and performed a song for the judges imploring them to notice him and send him to Hollywood, and the song was actually smart and funny and nicely constructed, with tricky rhymes and a strong melody. Hall was in a production of The Color Purple with Idol Season 3 winner Fantasia Barrino, which gives him the built-in Melinda Doolittle storyline, i.e., the backup moving into the spotlight. And Melinda fell just short of winning it all. If the ball bounces in a slightly different direction, Hall could take home the gold, where Doolittle walked away with the bronze.
WHY HE WON’T: Let’s not forget that Melinda Doolittle was one of the most gifted vocal performers ever to walk on the Idol stage. Hall has adequate chops, but he’s not in her stratum. He’s also attached to an ugly controversy coming into the season: There’s a story circulating that Hall was the alleged mastermind behind a plot to swindle investors into paying for a play that was never in production. Substance (or lack thereof) aside, that’s a storyline he’ll have to either quash entirely or rise above, phoenix-like, in order to keep it from filling tabloid inches as the season progresses. Most distressingly, like every African-American contestant this season, Hall seems more like a sidekick than a superstar. Is that a result of the talent that flowed into the Idol auditions, or creative casting by The Powers That Be? Regardless, no black man has cracked the Idol Top 3 since Ruben Studdard in Season 2. That dubious streak won’t be broken this year.
Casey James
Age: 27
Fort Worth, TX
Casey James’ American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Remember how Thelma and Louise made Brad Pitt a star? That’s Casey James in Season 9. He’s a blond cowboy with heartthrob dimples, small-town charm and the smarts to know that going shirtless gets the ladies to do your bidding (that is, when you have abs like Pitt or James; those of us who more closely resemble Michael Madsen or Andrew Garcia are encouraged to keep our shirts on). Indeed, stripping down for Kara and Posh Spice during auditions left ’em wanting more (Kara, in particular, seemed to be drooling), and one can imagine the “Cougars for Cook” bloc will quickly become “Cougars for Casey” in Season 9. (Don’t forget: David Cook won it all in Season 7 on the strength of those votes.) Musically, James is a talented and impressive blues guitarist, and has a husky even tone to his voice, both of which will garner him comparisons to the likes of John Mayer and Kris Allen, but he should transcend the pretty boys, too: There’s a lot of similarities to a young Gregg Allman here, and James might even have a little Kings of Leon in his bag of tricks. He may not be the favorite going in, but if you can get good odds, put your money on this dark horse. He’s going all the way.
WHY HE WON’T: Simon seemed none-too-impressed with James during auditions—unlike Kara and Posh, he remained unmoved by James’ chiseled bod. (Side note: Simon kind of looks like Michael Madsen, doesn’t he?) And what Simon doesn’t like frequently coincides with what voters don’t like. James does not have a big voice, and he could come off as wooden or dull. If voters see him as an empty-headed beefcake, even the cougar vote won’t keep him afloat for long.
Aaron Kelly
Age: 16
Sonestown, PA
Aaron Kelly’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Two words: David Archuleta. Little Aaron Kelly is this season’s Archie; the hopelessly cherubic, sweet-faced, doe-eyed enfant who will consume the pre-teen vote and the grandma vote with the efficiency of Belial collecting souls. Some Internet comments refer to him as “cute,” “SUPER CUTE!!” and “adorkable.” The musically accomplished likes of Andrew Garcia and Casey James may not see him as a threat out the gate, but very quickly, they will learn.
WHY HE WON’T: Well, Archie came in second to David Cook, and Kelly’s fate will probably mirror that in some way: Kelly will be in the game for a while, but precedent suggests he’ll fall short.
Alex Lambert
Age: 19
N. Richland Hills, TX
Alex Lambert’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Adam Lambert! It’s Adam Lambert! Adam Lambert!
WHY HE WON’T: No, no, it’s not Adam Lambert—this is Alex Lambert, silly. Adam Lambert was really cool and talented and stylish and gay and will go down as one of Idol’s two or three greatest contestants ever. Alex Lambert is cannon fodder who will be crushed in the gears of the Aaron Kelly machinery.
Next page: Michael Lynche – Joe Munoz