Lee Dewyze
Age: 23
Mount Prospect, IL
Lee Dewyze’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Well, it’s not easy to make a case that he will—he should probably be stuffed in the cannon alongside Michelle Delamor—but for argument’s sake: What little we’ve seen of Lee Dewyze—notably his understated and excellent version of “Ain’t No Sunshine” during auditions—suggests a soulful singer with the type of pipes that gets Idol voters sending texts: Kris Allen is a good reference point; Taylor Hicks is another. Both those guys won it all after entering the season as afterthoughts, so why not this guy? Dewyze has a husky, confident growl that will work on a range of material and is different enough to keep the judges trotting out this old chestnut: “You made the song your own.”
WHY HE WON’T: Go to any Long Island bar this Friday night—any bar with a microphone and a stool and a 23-year-old guy singing James Taylor covers or The Fray covers or “Ain’t No Sunshine.” That guy? That’s Lee Dewyze. That’s not your next American Idol.
Katelyn Epperly
Age: 19
West Des Moines, IA
Katelyn Epperly’s American Idol profile
WHY SHE’LL WIN: A wild-haired 19-year-old with a powerful natural voice, Katelyn Epperly was discovered early in auditions and adjusted enough to the judges criticisms (namely that she doesn’t connect emotionally with the song she’s singing) to make it into the Top 24. Visually, she’s quite recognizable, with a certain star quality, and her big voice will play well when the judges are looking for singers who can hit the high notes.
WHY SHE WON’T: She has no identity. To flesh out her back story and give viewers something to hang on to, the Idol producers went to great lengths to play up the pain Epperly has felt in the wake of her parents’ divorce. Now, divorce is tough for any 19-year-old, to be sure, but it’s hardly high drama, as far as reality TV goes, and it’s definitely not much of an identifier. (Let’s play out a quick scene here, to illustrate. Person A: “Which one is Katelyn Epperly?” Person B: “She’s the one whose parents got divorced.” Person A: “Ummmm…” Scene.) Worst of all, she really doesn’t seem to connect with her songs—there’s an emptiness in her eyes that’s actually a bit chilling—and she’ll have similar problems connecting with voters.
Andrew Garcia
Age: 24
Moreno Valley, CA
Andrew Garcia’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Andrew Garcia enters Season 9 an early favorite—his totally reimagined version of Paula Abdul’s “Straight Up” during Hollywood Week left the judges’ jaws on the floor. He’s a contestant who promises to “make the song [his] own” week after week. His back story is strong: His parents grew up in Compton gangs, but managed to keep Garcia off the streets. He’s also a young dad whose family has had plenty of screen time already. He has received comparisons to Adam Lambert (perhaps the highest praise that can be offered this season) but he also bears stylistic resemblances to two other favorites from Season 8—Kris Allen and Danny Gokey. He’s as close to a sure thing as the show has this season. If you like to bet on favorites, this is your horse.
WHY HE WON’T: Entering the season a favorite means he has nowhere to go but down. The Lambert comparisons won’t hold up—because he has neither Lambert’s range nor his chameleonic abilities—and he doesn’t have the swoon factor of Allen. That means his upside is Gokey, which is a nice upside, but it’s not a winner.
Tyler Grady
Age: 20
Nazareth, PA
Tyler Grady’s American Idol profile
WHY HE’LL WIN: Ever clueless, the Idol judges continually compared Tyler Grady to rock stars of the ’70s—totally ignorant of the fact that those looks and moves have kind of been de rigueur in Anglo-American hipster rock since the dawn of The Strokes. As such, Grady’s look is actually quite contemporary (assuming you consider 2001 to be “quite contemporary,” which is just about right for Idol voters) and while most Idol contestants look like high school drama students (David Archuleta), middle American waitresses/construction workers (Amanda Overmyer), lucky idiots (Taylor Hicks) or spazzy dweebs (Clay Aiken), Grady actually looks like a magazine-ready rock star. In the past that might have put him on the wrong show, but in a post-Lambert world, Idol voters will be hungry for such otherworldly presence.
WHY HE WON’T: See above. He’s too cool for Idol—and not just “cool” like Fonzie or James Dean or Julian Casablancas. So far, Grady has treated the competition with a sort of ironic detachment the voters loathe. The first time he shrugs off Simon’s criticism—which will happen within the first two weeks of the competition—it’s going to get ugly, quickly.
Next page: Todrick Hall – Alex Lambert