Election Guide 2010: Long Island’s State Senate and Assembly Races

What’s at stake in next Tuesday’s election is huge for New York: a new governor, for sure, and possibly a radical shift in the balance of power in Albany.

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, a Manhattan Democrat, won’t lose his prestigious title but his clout in the capital could be severely curbed if his current veto-proof majority falls by the wayside, as some predict it will.

For Democrats in the State Senate it’s even bleaker. Right now they hold control by a two-vote margin. Republican Minority Leader Dean Skelos, Long Island’s own, had two brief runs as majority leader himself before the Democrats took over in 2008 and again in June 2009 when he pulled off a coup by temporarily getting Democrats Hiram Monserrate of Queens and Pedro Espada, Jr., of the Bronx to support him. Skelos’ stunning move made Espada the Senate president, putting him in line to be acting governor whenever Gov. David Paterson left the state. (Paterson wisely stayed put.) Both turncoats are gone for good: Espada, under federal investigation for corruption, lost a primary in September; and Monserrate, who was convicted of assaulting his girlfriend, was expelled from the Senate in February. He is now facing federal corruption charges, too.

But Skelos won’t need guys like them to take over the State Senate, if things go his way next week. Some political insiders predict the Rockville Centre Republican could end up with 35 senators on his side. One Democrat reportedly fighting for his political life is Sen. Brian Foley of Suffolk; in Nassau, Sen. Craig Johnson, who became the first Democrat in a century to take that seat, is battling tooth and nail with Mineola Mayor Jack Martins. The big knock against both Foley and Johnson is their votes to pass the much-loathed Metropolitan Commuter Transportation Mobility Tax, which did not go over well with suburbanites far from the subways. Whether voters will derail them for trying to get the MTA back on track remains to be seen. But it’s an issue that promises not to go away, no matter who’s governor and which party controls Albany.

Don’t forget our other elections 2010 coverage: The Attorney General race between Eric Schneiderman and Dan Donovan, seven-way New York State Governor race, and battle between Thomas DiNapoli and Harry Wilson for New York State Comptroller, as well as an overview of what congressional races are worth watching.

State Senate

1st District
Kenneth LaValle vs Jennifer Maertz

2nd District
John Flanagan vs Ira Bernstein

3rd District
Brian X. Foley vs Lee Zeldin

4th District
Owen Johnson vs Maeghan Lollo

5th District
Carl Marcellino vs Lawrence Silverman

6th District
Kemp Hannon vs Francesca Carlow

7th District
Craig Johnson vs Jack Martins

8th District
Charles Fuschillo Jr. vs Carol A. Gordon

9th District
Dean Skelos vs George S. Sava

Assembly

1st District
Marc Alessi vs Dan Losquadro

2nd District
Fred Thiele vs Richard Blumenthal

3rd District
Dean Murray vs Robert Calarco

4th District
Steven Englebright vs Deborah McKee

5th District
Ginny Fields vs Kenneth Mangan vs Alfred Graf

6th District
Phillip Ramos vs Mohsen Elsayed

7th District
Michael Fitzpatrick vs Richard Macellaro

8th District
Philip Boyle vs Janice Sweet

9th District
Andrew Raia vs Christopher Dempsey

10th District
James Conte vs John Capobianco

11th District
Robert Sweeney vs Brett Robinson

12th District
Joseph Saladino vs Kevin Gorman

13th District
Charles Lavine vs Robert A. Germino, Jr.

14th District
Dermond Thomas vs Brian Curran

15th District
Michael Montesano vs Leon Hart

16th District
Michelle Schimel vs Scott Diamond

17th District
Thomas McKevitt vs Thomas Devaney

18th District
Earlene Hooper vs Derek L. Partee

19th District
David McDonough vs John E. Brooks

20th District
Harvey Weisenberg vs Joshua S. Wanderer

21st District
Patrick Nicolosi vs Edward Ra