Rose’s Record Has Its Thorns

Here's a cap suggestion: Derek Jeter will earn $21 million in 2010, the final season of a 10-year contract (Kathy Willens/AP).

Derek Jeter is poised to usurp Lou Gehrig as the Yankees’ all-time hits leader in the coming days, and El Capitan doesn’t figure to stop here. Projected to finish this season with nearly 2,750 hits, the vaunted 3,000 mark is all but a foregone conclusion for Jeter by 2011, barring injury or precipitous decline.

Fortuitously timed for Jeter, he’s on the verge of these milestones and others to follow amidst an MVP-caliber campaign. In 2009, Mr. November has largely silenced even his harshest detractors, who have come out in droves in recent years, particularly knocking his dubious defensive range. This year, Jeter is in the black on a handful of advanced defensive metrics such as range runs and ultimate zone rating, whereas he was on the wrong side of league averages in each previous season since 2001.

With 3,000 hits inevitable, one wonders whether Jeter will play long enough and at high enough level that he can claim the all-time hits crown from the disgraced Pete Rose (4,256 hits). Major League Baseball would like nothing better than to celebrate its clean-cut superstar (read: presumably clean, in regard to PEDs) and no longer deal with the embarrassment of one of its cherished records being owned by the banned Rose.

More pointedly, there’s no better time to question Jeter’s long-term career plans and whether he fits into the Yankees’ plans. Already saddled with the dubious 10-year contract of Alex Rodriguez, the Bombers will face a far more emotionally trying decision in dealing with Jeter, whose current pact expires after 2010. The assumption has long been that it would be mutually beneficial for Jeter to remain in pinstripes, a true Yankee preserving his Bronx legacy.

But the reality is both Jeter and the Yanks need to act in their respective best interests, and those may not conspire to keep Jeter in New York. As is true of any negotiation, the Yanks must decide how long they’re willing to retain Jeter’s services (if at all) beyond his current contract, and the shortstop must consider how long he’s willing to play and under what terms.

In 14 full Major League campaigns (discounting a cup of coffee in 1995, and also considering an injury-truncated season in 2003), Jeter has averaged a shade over 194 hits per season. Assuming he finishes this season with 2,735 career knocks (a modest estimate of 17 more in the Yanks’ final 22 games), Jeter will need 1,522 hits to pass Rose. At the rate of 194 hits per year, it would take him the better part of eight years to top Rose — without considering decline and injury.

Clearly, the odds are against Jeter, and if he’s interested in toppling Rose, he hasn’t let on.

“I don’t [think about it],” Jeter said Monday. “People mention it. I really don’t sit here and think about what’s going to happen six or seven years down the road.

“I think everyone sets goals and tries to accomplish those goals, and our goal here is to win. That’s the bottom line. I try to do whatever I can on that particular day to help us win. You just try to be consistent.”

That consistency has made Jeter one of the best shortstops ever to play the game. So…what’s next?